Arsenal 4 Leicester 3 -- Flaws and Changes

Note: Pregame Notes made upon seeing lineups. Halftime notes made at halftime.

An Opening Tale

 Wenger boo-birds. Up the Ox, Up the Vardy. Elneny a man between. Leicester power, then voluntary power failure.

Pregame Notes & Formation Implications

Leicester: 4-4-2. 

Overprotection of fullbacks owing to "double-stack" formation; self-stifling of fullbacks as attacking options due to 'stacked' presence of Mahrez and Albrighton.

Overcrowding of fullback/defensive flank area at the expense of midfield prowess.

Weak midfield presence (though ameliorated by Arsenal's the same).

The threat of Okazaki/Vardy separating from each other; Okazaki/Vardy stranded from rest of team as it copes with relentless attack -- leading to overcommitment by Albrighton/Mahrez cutting forward and inside in order to link play, further weakening midfield and exposing defense to UltraViolet Ox-Rays.

Mahrez and Albrighton stuck between roles -- do they cut inside and compromise formation, or hold back and strand attack?

Leicester Critical Areas: Set pieces; counter-attacking down flanks

Arsenal: 3-5-2. 

Space for Leicester to maneuver on the break when Welbeck cuts in as a false winger and Oxlade-Chamberlain/Bellerín streak forward.

Xhaka as the only cover for a three-man defense/Kolasinac exposed due to Oxlade-Chamberlain's commitment to attack.

Threat of Leicester in the air/on set pieces (Monreal as CB)

Lacazette favoring one side of the pitch/formational tilt due to large gap in midfield between Elneny & Xhaka and the attack. Uncertainty/instability in formation due to Oxlade-Chamberlain and Bellerin's being a crucial part of the attack and lack of midfield presence in attack.

Arsenal Critical Areas: Elneny pushing forward; False wingers

First Half

Arsenal goal #1: Second minute. Occurred when the Gunners forced their way through Leicester's compacted defensive-midfield jungle. Gunners pressured  Leicester into their own box, giving Elneny space, with Özil commanding attention in front of him. Elneny at this early point was unaware of his need to "stay at home" as a veritable CDM in order to provide cover for defense, and was not yet mentally (due to pragmatism's drain on his freedom) or physically tired. Elneny thus ventured forward; Elneny sent in a short cross. Goal, Lacazette.

Leicester goal #1: Fifth minute, on the counter. Arsenal concede a corner kick. Leicester takes the corner short, narrow the pitch. Players in the box remain in place for the cross. Cross to the back post; Maguire heads it back across the goalmouth, against the grain. Headed goal, Okazaki.

Leicester goal #2: Arsenal concede possession in midfield. Albrighton streaking with ball towards top left corner of 18-yard box. Vardy fades to back post. Albrighton cross, Cech caught in dubious position a few feet off line. Cross slices between Cech and defenders; Vardy meets it with outstretched boot. Goal, Vardy.

Arsenal goal #2: Stoppage time. Slop crumbs. Pressure again up the center of the pitch in the attacking third, this time from Lacazette and Welbeck. Leicester frozen, complaining for offsides. Goal, Welbeck.

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Leicester forcing forward on the break; Arsenal confused and overstretched. It was as if Gunners were expending the energy of a team playing on the counter-attack when they themselves were bossing possession. A lack of control belied Gunners' high possession percentage.

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Halftime Needs

Arsenal midfield forced in the first half to sit back and cover for an overstretched back three. A weak Arsenal midfield. Leicester's forwards-to-midfield connectivity a strongpoint. Leicester taking it to Arsenal on the flanks, creating an alternative reality for itself in the negative space allowed by the Gunners' formation and insistence upon attacking while using a formation best suited for the counter-attack.

Perhaps settling unnecessarily for long crosses, Leicester. Arsenal sagging into the midfield when necessary to defend Leicester attack, leading to weakness on the wings and opening doors for Leicester's attack. Arsenal could boss the midfield, but when they have the possession necessary for doing so, the Gunners settle for back-passes and outlets to the wing-backs. Where is Ozil?

Arsenal playing confused. Welbeck a loose chain. Wingbacks Oxlade-Chamberlain and Bellerín redundant, excess to requirements, islands -- yet also the initial means of attack being used by Arsenal every time the Gunners streak up the field.

Arsenal skirting through the midfield, as if the center of the pitch is no more than a lily pad, as if the midfield is unnecessary. A cursory approach. As if Arsene is playing/instructing a formation that he neither knows nor endorses. 

**

Look for Arsenal to switch to a back-four in the second half with Ox and Bellerin as fullbacks. Add one of the current back-three to the midfield as a CDM, allowing Elneny/Xhaka to push forward without exposing the defense and forcing the defense to clump inward and expose the flanks or stretch themselves wide at the expense of compactness. 

Both sides are ceding the midfield while in the attacking third. If/when Arsenal commits to pushing through Leicester's layered midfield defense, Arsenal will win.

**

Now, at halftime, the game is an ugly one. Arsenal's performance cannot last, and will not prove effective against teams more intent on cutting in from the wings while on the break/teams with unyielding midfield play. A match like this versus Manchester City, Bayern, Conte....

Second Half

Leicester goal #3: Set piece (corner). Leicester converting via a strength, albeit from a sneaky source. Goal, Vardy.

*Substitution/Changes*: Aaron Ramsey on. Olivier Giroud on. 68th minute. Ramsey strengthens midfield. Lacazette moving underneath Giroud. Formation changes to 4-2-3-1 (or 4-2-1-3). Ox moves to right-back from the left flank; Bellerin moves to left-back from the right flank. Özil now a central attacking midfielder, girded by Welbeck and Lacazette.

*Leicester changes*: Amartey on for Okazaki, 72nd minute. Extra body in midfield. Midfield shape now ideally diamond-esque, with one CDM behind two others.

*Iheanacho on for Matty James, 82nd minute. Nonsensical substitution; weakening the midfield. Leicester up a goal -- and bringing on an attacker? And after bringing on the attacker, sitting back and attempting to absorb pressure, pressure that would have been better alleviated with a strong midfield shield?

Arsenal goal #3: Three men unmarked towards the back post. Goal, Ramsey. The midfielder. A result of Leicester cocooning and bus-parking. Leicester's ossification come to roost.

Arsenal goal #4: Giroud set piece (corner), header. Goal, Giroud. La Tête Supérieure. Leicester still reeling from substitution overhauls, unable to settle. Arsenal lead, 4-3.

Arsenal win, 4-3.

Postgame Points

• Arsene Wenger used the wrong men in the wrong formation -- Welbeck out wide, Monreal at CB.
• Elneny forced to cover in midfield while also needing to connect that undermanned midfield to an attack hanging by its wing(back)s. When Elneny did not push forward, and the attack was thus wholly reliant upon the wingbacks' support, the wingbacks pushed forward out of necessity, leaving the midfield weak and the three-man defense uncovered in the event of a counter-attack. The changes with twenty minutes remaining addressed this. If Arsenal had played with four defenders for the match's entirety, Leicester may not have scored.
• Özil, too, was forced to dip into the midfield for extended periods, became an invisible man for long stretches.
• Xhaka's first shot from range came in the 81st minute, after Ramsey had come on. Arsenal's lack of midfield presence left its midfield frozen -- voluntarily and necessitously frozen, one the same.
• Arsenal had 70% possession -- a strong share of which was accounted for by Oxlade-Chamberlain.

Only when Arsenal's ineptitude in the center-pitch was swept under the rug by set pieces and/or a controlled, sustained attack -- the first of which the Gunners maintained in the 86th minute -- did Arsenal show venom.

Arsenal wins because of changes in personnel -- both teams' changes -- and the switch to a back-four midway through the second half. Arsenal wins, despite itself.

Say thank you, Arsenal, for the lack of focus/lack of mentality on the Foxes' part. Say thank you for Craig Shakespeare's substitutions and the ossification of the Leicester team in the game's final ten minutes. Say thank you to Leicester for turning itself into a foolish, "lower half team with an away lead" when your squad needed a lifeline.

Looking Ahead

A match like this versus a(nother) European giant would not bode well for the Gunners. Woe betide the Wenger who presides over a similar display and fails to salvage a full-points result. The late-match strategy Leicester employed would result in dropped points against teams far more devoid of technique than Arsenal. The better team won -- but at cynicality's behest.